An article about the iPad that ran earlier this week on PCWorld is full of pure silliness. The author, Galen Grunman, is under the misguided notion that the iPad is going to kill not just the iPhone, but the mobile web. Silliness! The day after Grunman made his little declaration, AppleInsider reported that despite an increase in sales volume, Apple’s market share was actually slipping. Talk about poor timing.
Grunman gets it right when he complains about AT&T’s spotty service and trying to do too much on a too little screen. But his argument loses steam when he makes the critical assumption that iPhone users will rush out to buy iPads. Not true. Grunman and others miss the mark when they fail to see the iPad as a device in the grey area between a smart phone and a notebook computer, mistaking it instead for a hybrid of the two. No one is going to replace their iPhone with a iPad. If anything, it’s that second device – the laptop – that’s going to be the first to go.
Here’s why: people like carrying the internet with them in their pockets, and when I say “people,” I mean people. All people. Journos and tech geeks and the like rushed out to buy first generation iPhones. Normal human beings – soccer moms, small businessmen, on-the-go types – waited for their contracts to expire before switching providers or upgrading their handsets. They like being able to keep a calendar, look up a phone number or get directions with their smart phone. They like “winning” at trivia because they were a finger tap away from Wikipedia. These are people who like the internet, but they do not live on it. Their primary computer may well be their work desktop or a laptop buried under a pile of mail on the counter. They do not carry a notebook with them, and even though the new iPad is small and portable and convenient, it is still not as convenient as the iPhone.
On the other hand, people like me – the ones who are celebrating the fourth anniversary of their commitment ceremony to their MacBook Pro – will buy an iPad (or covet one every time they pass its shiny, shiny display). That’s because no matter how portable a notebook is, it always has some limitation. Maybe it’s the huge display or the short battery life or the fact that it takes too long to wake up after a nap. If the iPad can do it better, faster, then it will emerge victorious. People who have always carried a notebook for light computing will be quick to upgrade. In fact, I could see the iPad paving the way for increased desktop sales. Large, shiny displays are attractive, but most people cannot afford to buy both a powerful notebook and a quality desktop. Now, they don’t have to, if the (relatively) inexpensive iPad can solve their portable needs.
I think Grunman may also get it wrong when he assumes that everyone will pay the additional $120 for an iPad with 3G connectivity. I certainly wouldn’t. I have no plans of abandoning my iPhone, and further, I can’t think of a place where I would use my iPad that didn’t have wireless – except, perhaps, a plane, but what use is 3G connectivity then? An iPhone exists so that you can find your way when you’re lost or one-up your friends during heated conversation. It’s not meant for heavy-duty browsing. The iPad, however, is. You’re not going to pull it out when you’re stranded by the side of the road. Instead, you’re going to wait until you have a moment to really sit down with it. For me, that usually means a classroom or cafe with wireless internet, not the dinner table. Just imagine how mad your friends are whenever you whip out your phone to make a point. Now think about they’ll do the first time you whip out the Jesus Tablet during casual conversation. Just be glad it doesn’t have a camera so they can’t use it to record your humiliation when they’ve dumped their coffee on your head for being a prat.